What is Peak Oil? In short, it is the moment in time that witnesses the maximum rate of sustainable oil production from a global perspective, after which there is a sudden and irreversible or terminal decline in oil exploitation. M. King Hubbert was the purported crazy guy who felt emboldened enough in 1956 to generate models that in retrospect accurately predicted that U.S. oil production would hit the wall between 1965 and 1970, unable to sustain the current rates of hydrocarbon exploitation.
What about today, and from a global perspective? Matthew Simmons says: “The gas glut is a joke; it’s not real…What a tragedy to destroy our most valuable natural resource—because of bad data."
One point Matthew makes is that the reservoirs, the extremely valuable sponges that house the oil and gas, can be damaged by reckless management as oil companies pump at high rates causing pressure drops and eventually lagged oil to accumulate. Oil that is missed as the natural dynamic fluid movement of the hydrocarbons is disturbed to the point of leaving easy and cheap oil in an unrecoverable state. Like an elderly man being forced to run a marathon, it could have devastating consequences on his life; such that the life of a mature oil field should be nursed for longevity.
The debate over whether peak oil is just around the corner is analogous to Plato’s parable or allegory of the cave. In his discourse the philosopher sees a group of enslaved people in a cave chained with their backs to an open fire, forever observing a blank wall in front of them. Shadows of people appear on the blank wall as they make their way across a raised path between the fire and the backs of the prisoners. Thus, according to Plato, the projected shadows are tantamount to the prisoners experiencing reality. Are we shackled to our global belief that oil is an inexhaustible commodity made available at current sustainable rates of production and at prices that are essentially free? Or will we, like the philosopher, free ourselves from the confines of a dark cave, walk outside and perceive the true form of reality, and not the reality echoed by shadows?
The only way we can see the reality is to grasp the knowledge garnered from unbiased and uncorrupted upstream data. Make the data transparent. I am talking about not only the reported production rates of oil and gas from the extant oil fields managed by NOCs and IOCs, but also the plethora of geophysical, geologic and reservoir data that coalesces to form the basis of all models that are the cornerstone for all reservoir management strategies to exploit the precious hydrocarbons. Only knowledge of the reservoirs' characteristics constitute real knowledge, and that knowledge finds its source in the upstream geoscientific data.
How might we avert the tragedy echoed by Matthew Simmons and enlighten oil geoscientists to better manage the reservoirs in their mature fields? I propose using business analytics and an array of statistical analysis workflows to characterize the reservoir properties. With advanced data integration and aggregation techniques, vital knowledge can be gathered from the plethora of upstream data accumulated by the disparate geosciences that are fundamental to efficient and effective reservoir management strategies. Let’s enhance the data and provide the tools, solutions and workflows for oil companies to delay peak oil.
